Buckley’s Blog: The numbers don’t lie, but people do.
Yesterday Grand High Strategist of the GOP, Karl Rove, predicted that Romney will win with 279 electoral votes. If I’m feeling charitable, I call this a whirling dervish spin of the numbers. If I’m not, I call it a callous disregard for reality.
For Mitt to hit that number, he would need to win the following swing states: Florida, Colorado, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire and Ohio.
Sure he could do it, but when you look at the numbers, one can see that Rove is grasping at straws. Out of the 6 states mentioned above, there is confidence of a Romney lead in only 2 state, Florida and North Caroline. According to The Huffington Post poll of polls map, Obama has an 80%+ chance of winning the other 4 states.
More numbers that hint at Rove’ prediction being disingenuous is the results from early voting.
So when Rove says in his Wall Street Journal column that Romney is winning the numbers game “from polling data to early voting”, he is flat out wrong. But then why say this? Why go to all the effort of saying your guy’s going to win when reality suggests otherwise and you’ll look a fool if your wrong? The answer is that top Republicans cant admit defeat, especially when in their mind and in the mind of the media, it is such a close race.
I’m sure that behind closed doors in the smoke filled strategy lairs where people like Rove lurk, they are panicking. The numbers are not in their favour and whilst one can argue that you cant base any concrete decision on any polls, you can certainly make an educated guess.
And for what it’s worth, my educated guess is that Romney is not going to win enough of those swing states to take him past the 270 finish line.